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Goldman Sachs warns that the euro could decline by up to 10% against the dollar if Donald Trump and the Republicans win the upcoming US elections and implement high global tariffs alongside significant domestic tax cuts. The bank anticipates that a robust US economy and relatively high interest rates will sustain dollar strength, potentially extending beyond current forecasts if tariffs increase significantly. Additionally, it predicts a 12% drop in the yuan under similar circumstances.
Congress is urged to act this fall to enhance Medicare coverage for breakthrough medical technologies, as current policies are insufficient. While the FDA's expedited review process for innovative devices exists, Medicare's slow coverage can delay access for millions of beneficiaries, particularly those in underserved communities. Legislative efforts, such as H.R. 1691, aim to provide a more comprehensive solution, promoting health equity and encouraging medtech innovation.
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde suggested that Donald Trump should visit Frankfurt to understand the challenges faced by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. In an interview with Bloomberg Television, she emphasized that setting interest rates is far from an easy task, countering the presidential contender's claims.
UBS forecasts a volatile EUR/USD currency pair, expecting it to rise to 1.16 by the end of 2025, despite short-term risks from the US election. The bank advises selling during USD strength phases, particularly if Trump wins, while maintaining a positive outlook for European growth. Recent US labor market strength and ECB rate cuts are influencing the currency dynamics, with key support at 1.08 and resistance at 1.12 and 1.15.
The IRS has announced new federal income tax brackets for 2025, with rates ranging from 10% to 37% based on income levels. The standard deduction will increase to $30,000 for married couples and $15,000 for single filers. If Congress does not act, these tax cuts will expire, reverting to 2017 levels.
Billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones warns of a looming fiscal crisis in the U.S. due to rising government spending and a soaring deficit, projected to exceed $1.8 trillion for the 2024 fiscal year. He cautions that this could trigger a significant sell-off in the bond market, leading to higher interest rates and a potential "Minsky moment" where the unsustainability of fiscal policies becomes apparent. Jones criticizes both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris as ill-suited to address these budget challenges and emphasizes the need for substantial spending reforms.
Stock futures fell as the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended a three-day winning streak, closing down over 344 points. General Motors raised its 2024 earnings guidance after surpassing estimates, while Disney announced James Gorman as its new chairman and delayed the CEO succession plan to early 2026. Donald Trump's tax proposals could exempt income taxes for 93.2 million Americans but may jeopardize Social Security's funding, while Nike secured a renewed, larger contract as the exclusive uniform provider for the NBA and WNBA for another 12 years.
Donald Trump's rising poll numbers have sparked the "Trump Trade," characterized by increasing equity indices, a stronger dollar, and rising rates, as investors anticipate fiscal stimulus. However, despite leading in key swing states, Trump still trails Harris in the popular vote, highlighting the uncertainty ahead of the election. The Dow Jones is attempting to break out of a bullish wedge, reflecting investor eagerness for gains amid this unpredictable political landscape.
IG
As Europe and North America grapple with debt and aging populations, the focus on economic growth has intensified. However, proposed solutions, such as large tariffs advocated by former President Trump, face skepticism from economists who argue that tariffs typically burden consumers and fail to stimulate growth effectively.
The trajectory of Bitcoin is closely tied to U.S. monetary policy and economic conditions, with potential short-term fluctuations influenced by political candidates' stances on cryptocurrencies. Despite Donald Trump's past criticisms, he now appears more favorable towards Bitcoin than Kamala Harris, whose position is complicated by the SEC's stringent regulations. Overall, the U.S. is unlikely to block promising technologies like Bitcoin, fostering an environment for innovation and competitiveness.
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